Chicago Business Daily
Bureaucracies Bureaucratic Knowledge Base
Phone or Email is more effective in getting your work done from lazy and bureaucratic Govt. employees? I am newcomer to Sydney from Adelaide. I observe there is quite bureaucracy/corruption going on here as compared to Adelaide. Is it true that things work quite differently here? Is it true that Sydney is quite political kind of city. Secondly, what is the effective way to get your done quickly from bureaucratic employees?
What is the name for the tendency of bureaucracies to keep expanding and expanding in size? By the continuation of hiring of unnecessary jobs. My teacher actually said it was parkinson's law in lecture, while the (and actually his) book said that parkinson's law was the tendency for work to fill the time allotted for its completion. What is the name for the bureaucratic tendency to expand? Thanks for your help.
what is bureaucratic and bureaucracy? i´ve heard these words before but don´t have a clue of what they are.
Why is bureaucratic control of health care bad when done by the Govt, but good when done by HMOs? Both ration health care. Neither really have competition: because HMOs don't go for the customer, they go for the employer and the customers are stuck with it. Both are bureaucracies. Both have mindless paperwork up the wazoo. So really, what is the big difference in who is screwing over my health care? Loyd/Mary P.- That is there business model. They take money from everyone and make money by denying health benefits to people. And Obama has no death panels dude.
How difficult / bureaucratic is it to get a working permit for Hong Kong? What are the requirements? Can I freely apply for a job there and worry about the bureaucracy later?
Has the US military become way too bureaucratic? In some cases bureaucracy can be a good thing. In the case of the military and national defense, it's very important needing to keep track of things and needing paperwork. However, when you can't even do the simplest tasks without it being spelled out on paper and without someone's signature or without power point presentation that's when bureacracy becomes more of an obstacle than an advantage.
What is the bureaucratic model? How does it work? Discuss How an agency's Bureaucracy helps or hinders the development of professional relationships in the field of human services.
Government homework help?! Bureaucracies? Which of the following statements about bureaucracies is FALSE? Choose one answer. a. Bureaucratic power extends to every corner of American economic and social life. b. Bureaucracies are scarcely hinted at in the Constitution. c. Nothing better illustrates the complexity of modern government than its massive bureaucracies. d. Each bureaucratic agency is created by the president. e. How to manage and control bureaucracies is a central problem of democratic government.
what are the characteristics of the bureaucratic form of governmental power? what are bureaucracy's strong points? and weak points? please explain
The rise of the bureaucratic state? 1WHAT ARE THE THREE WAYS IN WHICH POLITICAL POWER CAN BE GATHERED UNDESIRABLY INTO BUREAUCRATIC HANDS?? 2. EXPLAIN THE CONCEPT OF CLIENTELEISM? 3. GIVE AN EXAMPLE OF 2 NEW DEAL AGENCIES BASED UPON THIS IDEA. 4.IN DOLLAR VOLUME WHO ARE NOW THE MAIN “CLIENTS” OF THE FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY? 5. ACCORDING TO WILSON WHAT HAPPENS ONCE A MAJORITY SUPPORTED PROGRAM IS INITIATED?
Is bureaucracy and democracy the same thing or do they go hand in hand? I keep hearing america is a democracy but all i ever really see is bureaucratic bull crap so is america a bureaucracy and not a democracy?
In the 20th century the US turned more bureaucratic agencies to conduct the business of the federal govt...? What are the roles of the various units of federal bureaucracy *cabinet level dept. * independent regulatory agencies *govt corps. * independent executive agencies
Has bureaucratic authoritarianism taken over most of the world's Govts. including the US? Sure there are more democracies than ever in the world but no matter who the people elect all they are really doing is picking a new leader of Gigantic bureaucratic Govts. that run things the way they want not necessarily the way the people want & there isn't anything anybody can do to stop those Govts. because of the sheer size of these bureaucracies including a new President, Dem or GOP, because politicians love the authority they get by becoming the leader of the Govt. bureacracy. Bill Clinton loved it, Putin loves it, GW Bush loves it, Musharraf loves it, Tony Blair loved it, Sharon loved it, Angela Merkel loves it, Chavez loves it, every President in Africa loves it, all of today's leaders love bureacratic authoritarianism because they can be dictators w/o being called dictators because it's the entire Govt. that is being dictorial. Just make sure that the people get economic freedoms & no one even realizes that there really isn't any democracy in the world. Funny isn't it?
Help with my college government class question please? This is the assignment below. Any ideas on how to answer this. Describe how each of the three major approaches to reforming the Federal bureaucracy ( deregulation, competition and outsourcing and enforcing performance standards) attempts to improve the efficiency of the Federal bureaucracy in accomplishing its bureaucratic mission. In your answer, be sure to analyze how effective each approach is at enforcing accountability of the Federal bureaucracy and/or problems that each approach presents.
Explanation of Max Weber's concept of 'iron cage' (bureaucratic) in simple words ? What is your understanding on Max Weber's 'iron cage' concept , related to the bureaucracy? Can you explain in simple words?
T/F? Merit is a propert of bureaucratic managment? true of false; Merit is a propert of bureaucratic managment. Your credit card company is a bureaucracy.
List of 3 American Bureaucracies? Can someone please give me 3 bureaucratic agencies that have been developed in the last century?
How did Jackson influence the bureaucracy? Article- James Q. Wilson's-The Rise of the Bureaucratic State How did Jackson influence the bureaucracy? was that his attention?
Would you favor paying bureaucrats their full salary to sit at home? Here's how we can get rid of the bureaucracy. Offer a deal to the bureaucrats, where they will receive their full salary to do nothing and will be perfectly free to take any private sector job. They will receive their salary for a set number of years (however many years they worked in "public service"). When this offer is accepted, they would not be replaced. However, they would be barred from ever taking another government job under penalty of having to repay the salary they received during the years they were paid for not working. This proposal would be beneficial to the economy, as it would eliminate the bureaucratic jobs that harm the economy. It would also benefit the taxpayers in the long run, as eventually they would no longer have to pay for "public servants" that are a drain on the economy. This would also reduce the size of government, with the support of the bureaucrats. For people who are serious about shutting down the public sector, this plan is a workable way to achieve it.
Is Sydney most political and bureaucratic city in Australia? How? I am newcomer to Sydney from Adelaide. I observe there is quite bureaucracy/corruption going on here as compared to Adelaide. Is it true that things work quite differently here? Is it true that Sydney is quite political kind of city. Secondly, what is the effective way to get your work done quickly from bureaucratic employees? Here I am talking about complaining and pushing up officials. Phone or Email:- which is more effective in getting your work done from lazy and bureaucratic Govt. employees? How?
Does anyone truly control the federal bureaucracy? I'm doing an assignment for school and it asks who controls the federal bureaucracy. I've read a couple of documents, including "The Rise of the Bureaucratic State" by James Q. Wilson and I still can't come up with an answer for that. So, does anyone really control it?
do you agree with what ron paul wants to do with the FBI and CIA? making the intelligence agencies less bureaucratic such as homeland security FBI and CIA ? when asked if he would eliminate them - he said he would still have people gathering intelligence but remove the bureaucracy and streamline intelligence into decision makers hands quicker (the opposite of what homeland security has done ?do you think thats a bad idea and if so why? and are you willing to bet your life on it ?
What is waste? It has something to do with the three anti-campaign? The Three-anti Campaign was launched in Manchuria at the end of 1951. It was aimed at members within the Communist Party of China, former Kuomintang members and bureaucratic officials who were not party members. The 3 antis imposed were: corruption waste bureaucracy ...What exactly do they mean by "waste" in this passage? Also, what does bureaucracy mean.
I am conducting a study for a class and would love some volunteers to answer the following the best you can.? Examine several social groups or organizations to which you belong or have belonged (school, government, family, religious, special interest club, and so forth). Explain the role of the group and the social functions it supports or promotes. Be sure to define the groups that you select in terms of primary and secondary classifications. If the group can be deemed a reference group, consider how has this group affects or affected your life, personally and/or professionally? If you select any organizations for your analysis, consider Weber’s five characteristics of an ideal bureaucracy and suggest which (if any) of the characteristics are directly applicable to your organization. From personal experience, examine the positive and negative ramifications of operating within a bureaucratic structure. This is a survey and I need multiple answers to get the results to write a research paper. I AM DOING MY OWN HOMEWORK...THIS IS PART OF THAT...GETTING DIFFERENT ANSWERS TO ANALYZE AND WIRTE ABOUT THW DIFFERENT ANSWERS!!!
Do we want to have our lives ruled by more and more bureaucracy? How much of a quality life does one have when living in fear of a "knock on the door" from one bureaucratic agent or another?
What are the advantages and disadvantages of bureaucracy? Bureaucratic forms of organization versus the japanese management system.
What do you think of these quotes, by Keyes? Alan Keyes on welfare: It is a concept that emphasizes human needs while neglecting human capacities. It stresses individual helplessness and weakness, undermining the sense of personal responsibility. It justifies ever greater concentrations of power in the hands of the state, leaving people each day more powerless to effect and improve their own condition. This bad concept leads to institutions and policies that disable individual initiative, motivation, and creativity. Faced with political and social structures that embody the assumption of individual impotence, individuals acquire the passive habits and expectations that go with it. Alan Keyes on bureaucracies: Bureaucracies are inherently antidemocratic. Bureaucrats derive their power from their position in the structure, not from their relations with the people they are supposed to serve. The people are not masters of the bureaucracy, but its clients. They receive its services, but only insofar as they conform to its authority. The bureaucracy is like a computer; it responds only to those who address it in the proper form. In this sense, a bureaucratic government program has a double meaning: The program serves its clients, but it also programs them. Alan Keyes on a constitutional amendment to limit borrowing and spending. We must take away the government’s credit card. With limits on both tax revenue and borrowing, the Federal government would finally be forced to get serious about spending cuts. That’s why a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, with barriers to both borrowing and spending, is the best way to secure budget discipline. Alan Keyes on how affirmative action turns back the clock I read American sagas (of the west) and I do not see people who went in search of material things. I see people who wrote down that what they sought was an escape from an old world which dictated their conscience and established their merit based on who their parents. That is one of the reasons I oppose this whole Affirmative Action business. We are not supposed to be judged based on what our ancestors did or suffered. We are supposed to be judged as individuals, based on what we are able to achieve. And when you tell me that somebody’s skin color or gender is going to determine their prospects in this world, that is turning the clock back hundreds of years. Back to a time before this nation declared that all men are created equal and endowed by their creator; not by their ancestry, not by their skin color, not by their gender, not by Congress, not by the Constitution, and not by the laws. Our rights come from God, not from the Constitution Keyes asked [a group of 5th grade students] where their rights came from. “The Bill of Rights?” one youngster asked. No, said Keyes. “Us?” No. “The government?” No. “Martin Luther King?” No, “but he understood where our rights came from,” Keyes said. “The Constitution?” No. Finally, a girl raised her hand, sat up straight, and said, “The rights come from God.” Keyes had his answer. Preferential affirmative action is patronizing. Preferential affirmative action patronizes American blacks, women, and others by presuming that they cannot succeed on their own. Preferential affirmative action does not advance civil rights in this country. It is merely another government patronage program that secures money and jobs for the few people who benefit from it, and breeds resentment in the many who do not. It divides us as a people.
Isn't there an alternate way to deal with government bureaucracy? I understand that Holland has a simple solution to the problem of bureaucratic growth. They don't have so many entitlement programs. They have unemployment. If someone is out of work, regardless of the reason, they draw unemployment. Seems like a simple solution for a people who trust each other to do the right thing, doesn't it?
After looking at this comparison, who do you choose? Here's a comparison... TAXES: McCain - lower Obama - higher ECONOMY: McCain - create jobs Obama - destroy jobs ENERGY: McCain - strategic independence Obama - says 'no' to solutions and sided with Bush on oil company tax breaks HEALTHCARE: McCain - more available, affordable and responsive Obama - break employer coverage and lead to bureaucratic system REFORM: McCain - proven Obama - rheutoric SPENDING: McCain - lower Obama - increase spending by $1 trillion EDUCATION: McCain - solutions Obama - union-controlled bureaucracies IRAQ: McCain - victory Obama - failure Who do YOU choose?
do you think Ron Paul's idea of making the intelligence agencies? less bureaucratic such as homeland security FBI and CIA ? when asked if he would eliminate them - he said he would remove the bureaucracy to streamline intelligence into decision makers hands quicker (the opposite of what homeland security has done ?do you think thats a bad idea and if so why? and are you willing to bet your life on it ? from what I read it would fall under the armed forces/dept of defense reponsibility henry -so if you have the department of defense and the national guard already why do you need homeland security ? responsibility stone K there would still be people collecting intel - he stated that in his speech - and how would you react if you were repeatedly attacked with loaded questions and had only 30 seconds to answer -I am sorry not all of ron pauls solutions to the challenges dont fit into a sound bite much like the other candidates but thats what happens when you root for someone with a very high IQ pusherhombre did you listen to just the loaded questions and not the answers ? because he stated pretty clearly there would be intelligence gathering he would remove the bureaucracy so that people with the intelligence would be able to move quicker to avert an attack here is a link to the ron paul on the debate http://www.youtube.com/user/IntegrityCheck
some questions i need help with please? 1. Which of the following is an accurate statement concerning the relationship between social structure and culture? A) There is no relationship between social structure and culture B) Social structure and culture are merely different terms to describe the exact same thing. C) A society’s cultural elements help to shape its social structure D) Social structure is a type of culture. E) Social structure refers to the culture of nations, while culture is reserved for smaller groups. 2. Most socialization is direct/overt. A) True B) False 3.A social network consists of just our closest friends and family. (Check out Social Networks in Chapter 6). A) True B) False 4. Individuals who go to Alcoholics Anonymous in order to fight their own alcohol addiction would be engaging in which of the following? A) Primary Socialization B) Rehabilitary Socialization C) Resocialization D) Cultural Relativity E) Mainstreaming 5. What term is used for the process in which the characteristics of bureaucracies invade other sectors of society? A) symbolic interactionism B) the spirit capitalism C) bureaucratic inertia D) bureaucratic creep E) McDonaldization 6. In "Shopping as Symbolic Interaction" the author discusses the corporate rules and regulations that influence the behavior of toy store workers. This discussion best exemplifies which of the following concepts? A) Social Loafing B) McDonaldization C) Backstage Performances D) The Peter Principle E) Bureaucratic Inertia 7.Why is the family arguably the most important agent of socialization? A) Respect for parents is one of the key values in US society B) Children are uncritical and have no basis for comparing or evaluating what their families are teaching them C) In recent years the family has begun to take on greater responsibilities D) The family is the primary and first agent of socialization that children encounter. E) All of the above F) Only b and d are correct 8. Socialization refers to the: A) Process by which people learn the norms, values and beliefs of their culture. B) Fact that human nature is essentially self-centered and must be unlearned. C) Interaction between people and social institutions. D) Interaction between cultures that belong to different societies. E) Process by which individuals come to know one another. 9.Which one of the following is NOT an element of the “looking-glass self”? A) We imagine how we appear to those around us. B) We imagine others’ evaluations of us. C) We determine whether or not other people’s evaluations of us are accurate. D) We develop a self-concept based on what we think others think of us. E) N neither A nor C are elements of the “looking-glass self.”.
what are some of the benefits of the federal bureaucracy? what are some of the drawbacks to the current bureaucratic system?
Who wants the government to run their healthcare...? ... when the government hasn't been able to run any other program without a ton of bureaucracy. Do you want bureaucratic BS when it comes to your healthcare? Or do you honestly believe that they will actually finally be able to run a program successfully?
which type of dystopian control is I Am Legend? Corporate control: One or more large corporations control society through products, advertising, and/or the media. Bureaucratic control: Society is controlled by a mindless bureaucracy through a tangle of red tape, relentless regulations, and incompetent government officials. Technological control:Society is controlled by technology- through computers, robots, and/or scientific means. Philosophical?religious control: Society is controlled by philosophical or religious ideology often enforced through a dictatorship or theocratic government.
How do you become a Sovereign, or truly free? (unincorporated, maybe?)? I read about this in Mary Croft's ebook "How I Clobbered Every Bureaucratic, Cash-Confiscatory Agency Known to Man" Any thoughts on freedom from bureaucracy? Remember, people, I am talking about how individuals become truly free, not about how to change the current government.
Would a REAL leader remove EXECUTIVE BRANCH bureaucratic delays to help with the Gulf spill? By their delay, our bureaucracy and government regulation have made a horrible situation even worse. There were two weeks between the April 20 explosion on the Deepwater Horizon and the time when the first oil made landfall. And it was almost six additional weeks before specialized equipment from overseas was approved by our government for limited use. There’s another problem with how U.S. regulations are slowing down the cleanup. The Dutch are now providing skimmers that can be attached to American vessels. But because most of what’s skimmed is unavoidably water, not oil, they complain that America’s EPA standards won’t let them put back the water. Thus their tanks fill up with a mixture that is mostly water. By executive order or ONE PHONE CALL, 0baama could STOP this asinine government delay to handling the spill.... Tell the EPA to let the cleanup go ahead and WAIVE the Jones act... IMMEDIATELY... or will barry wait ANOTHER 70 days? http://www.newsmax.com/ErnestIstook/Gulf-oil-BP-cleanup/2010/06/22/id/362748 Why won't 0bama put down the champagne long enough to do something that is WELL WITHIN his authority?
Political Science homework question? 4.)Federal bureaucracies are supposedly neutral in administrative functions of jobs. How does the idea of the iron triangle destroy the neutrality of these bureaucracies? Explain what the iron triangle is. What type of bureaucratic, appointee, or civil servant would be more likely to be effected by.
Did you know that Maine has become the first state to refuse the Real ID? Maine Becomes First State in Nation to Reject Real ID Legislature Passes a Resolution Refusing to Implement the National ID Card FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday, January 25, 2007 Augusta- Maine became the first state in the nation to reject the federal Real ID Act today. The Legislature voted this morning in favor of a resolution refusing to implement the Real ID Act. The Senate vote was unanimous while only four members of the House voted in opposition. At a press conference today, the bipartisan sponsors of the resolution celebrated a victory that they say will save Mainers from paying millions of dollars to fund the program, becoming easy targets for identity theft, and dealing with endless bureaucratic snafus. The Real ID Act, which mandates that by 2008 states turn their driver’s licenses into national ID cards that will be part of a 50-state shared database, faced broad bipartisan opposition in Maine. The federal government may be willing to burden us with the high costs of a program that will do nothing to make us safer, but it is our job as state Legislators to protect the people of Maine from just this sort of dangerous federal mandate, said Senate Majority Leader Libby Mitchell (D- Augusta), the lead sponsor of the resolution in the Senate. As a Mainer, I am proud that this state has led the way in taking a stand against Real ID. The broad bipartisan opposition in Maine to Real ID shows just how problematic the law is, said Representative Scott Lansley (R- Sabattus), the lead sponsor of the resolution in the House. It wouldn’t make any sense to implement a program that is opposed by so many people from both sides of the aisle and doesn’t seem to have any real benefits for the people of Maine. Real ID has gained the ire of privacy advocates, who say linking driver’s licenses and state ID cards to a national database will create a goldmine of accessible information for identity thieves. The Real ID Act requires the cards to include a computer-readable zone, which privacy advocates say will allow anyone with a reader to collect the personal identifying information of anyone with a card. Real ID is a real privacy nightmare, said House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree (D- North Haven), a sponsor of the resolution. It won’t make us any safer, but it could make us vulnerable to identity theft. Real ID has also caused concern over the amount it will cost states in taxpayer dollars. While the Real ID Act is a federal law, it doesn’t come with federal appropriations. In order to adopt Real ID, states will need new technology and an increase in Bureau of Motor Vehicle workers. Experts have estimated the initial cost of implementing the system at $11 billion to the states, and Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said the cost to Maine would be $185 million over the first five years. Real ID means huge costs, huge bureaucracy, and a huge threat to individual liberties, said Shenna Bellows, Maine Civil Liberties Union Executive Director. It creates a virtual one-stop shop for identity thieves. Maine did the right thing to oppose this. The resolution passed by the Maine Legislature resolves that, in protest of the treatment of the states by the President and United States Congress, the State of Maine refuses to implement the Real ID Act and implores the United States Congress to repeal the Real ID Act. The resolution is the first of its kind in the nation. nonalcoholic2: I am fully aware of what is supposed to happen if you do not have a Read ID card. I also know that other states will not allow the Feds to bully them into implementing this foolish and assinine law. It will not stop terrorism. Do you think Gun control stops criminals from buying guns? No way in Hell. They can not prevent Us the citizens of maine from flying on an airplane, entering a federal building, receiving federal benefits, etc. if we are exercising our constitutional right to privacy and if our state has said no to the law.
Anyone got any advice regarding travel to Russia? Anyone got any advice regarding travel to Russia. I have heard the bureaucracy in trying to obtain a visa is a nightmare and expensive on top. Plus I am more like an independent traveller and will probably stay longer than normal tourists, so I expect a mountain of bureaucratic obstacles. Any advice on avoiding the overzealous, obstructive penpushers would be welcome! Would invitation from a Russian citizen be helpful?
Is bureaucracy negative and should we consider deregulation or privatization? In an age of red tape and inefficient government, what are your thoughts on deregulation or privatization within the U.S bureaucratic system?
1. Which of the following has been critical of the federal bureaucracy because they feel that it leads to the? welfare state & the concentration of power in Washington? a-Republicans & liberals b-Democrats & conservatives c-Republicans & conservatives d-democrats & liberals e- moderates & socialists Question 2- Webster's classic view of bureaucracy does not in every respect fit the government in the US because of a-court decisions b.-probing by press c-congressional investigations placing pressure on the bureaucracy to operate in public view. d-all of the above e- none of the above Question 3- Max Weber viewed bureaucracy as a- bureaucratic inertia b-administrative incompetence c-a strict hierarchy d-making modern government ungovernable e-an insignificant political force. 4-Which of the following developed the classic concept of the bureaucracy & saw it as a strict hierarchy? a-peter drucker b-dwight eisenhower c-max weber d-franklin roosevelt e-harry truman. 5-which of the following is a government corporation? a-postal service b-the federal deposit & insurance c-tennessee valley authority
I was on the Global Warming Gravy Train? You want to know some facts ? I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train By David Evans 5/28/2007 I devoted six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian government to estimate carbon emissions from land use change and forestry. When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty conclusive, but since then new evidence has weakened that case. I am now skeptical. In the late 1990s, this was the evidence suggesting that carbon emissions caused global warming: 1.Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, proved in a laboratory a century ago. 2.Global warming has been occurring for a century and concentrations of atmospheric carbon have been rising for a century. Correlation is not causation, but in a rough sense it looked like a fit. 3.Ice core data, starting with the first cores from Vostok in 1985, allowed us to measure temperature and atmospheric carbon going back hundreds of thousands of years, through several dramatic global warming and cooling events. To the temporal resolution then available (data points more than a thousand years apart), atmospheric carbon and temperature moved in lockstep: they rose and fell together. Talk about a smoking gun! 4.There were no other credible causes of global warming. This evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we are absolutely certain when we apparently need to act now? So the idea that carbon emissions were causing global warming passed from the scientific community into the political realm. Research increased, bureaucracies were formed, international committees met, and eventually the Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997 to curb carbon emissions. The political realm in turn fed money back into the scientific community. By the late 1990s, lots of jobs depended on the idea that carbon emissions caused global warming. Many of them were bureaucratic, but there were a lot of science jobs created too. I was on that gravy train, making a high wage in a science job that would not have existed if we didn't believe carbon emissions caused global warming. And so were lots of people around me; there were international conferences full of such people. We had political support, the ear of government, big budgets. We felt fairly important and useful (I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet! But starting in about 2000, the last three of the four pieces of evidence above fell away. Using the same point numbers as above: 2.Better data shows that from 1940 to 1975 the earth cooled while atmospheric carbon increased. That 35 year non-correlation might eventually be explained by global dimming, only discovered in about 2003. 3.The temporal resolution of the ice core data improved. By 2004 we knew that in past warming events, the temperature increases generally started about 800 years before the rises in atmospheric carbon. Causality does not run in the direction I had assumed in 1999 — it runs the opposite way! It took several hundred years of warming for the oceans to give off more of their carbon. This proves that there is a cause of global warming other than atmospheric carbon. And while it is possible that rising atmospheric carbon in these past warmings then went on to cause more warming ("amplification" of the initial warming), the ice core data neither proves nor disproves this hypothesis. 4.There is now a credible alternative suspect. In October 2006 Henrik Svensmark showed experimentally that cosmic rays cause cloud formation. Clouds have a net cooling effect, but for the last three decades there have been fewer clouds than normal because the sun's magnetic field, which shields us from cosmic rays, has been stronger than usual. So the earth heated up. It's too early to judge what fraction of global warming is caused by cosmic rays. There is now no observational evidence that global warming is caused by carbon emissions. You would think that in over 20 years of intense investigation we would have found something. For example, greenhouse warming due to carbon emissions should warm the upper atmosphere faster than the lower atmosphere — but until 2006 the data showed the opposite, and thus that the greenhouse effect was not occurring! In 2006 better data allowed that the effect might be occurring, except in the tropics. The only current "evidence" for blaming carbon emissions are scientific models (and the fact that there are few contradictory observations). Historically, science has not progressed by calculations and models, but by repeatable observations. Some theories held by science authorities have turned out to be spectacularly wrong: heavier-than-air flight is impossible, the sun orbits the earth, etc. For excellent reasons, we have much more confidence in observations by several independent parties than in models produced by a small set of related parties! Let's return to the interaction between science and politics. By 2000 the political system had responded to the strong scientific case that carbon emissions caused global warming by creating thousands of bureaucratic and science jobs aimed at more research and at curbing carbon emissions. But after 2000 the case against carbon emissions gradually got weaker. Future evidence might strengthen or further weaken it. At what stage of the weakening should the science community alert the political system that carbon emissions might not be the main cause of global warming? None of the new evidence actually says that carbon emissions are definitely not the cause of global warming, there are lots of good science jobs potentially at stake, and if the scientific message wavers then it might be difficult to later recapture the attention of the political system. What has happened is that most research efforts since 1990 have assumed that carbon emissions were the cause, and the alternatives get much less research or political attention. Unfortunately politics and science have become even more entangled. Climate change has become a partisan political issue, so positions become more entrenched. Politicians and the public prefer simple and less-nuanced messages. At the moment the political climate strongly blames carbon emissions, to the point of silencing critics. The integrity of the scientific community will win out in the end, following the evidence wherever it leads. But in the meantime, the effect of the political climate is that most people are overestimating the evidence that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming. I recently bet $6,000 that the rate of global warming would slow in the next two decades. Carbon emissions might be the dominant cause of global warming, but I reckon that probability to be 20% rather than the 90% the IPCC estimates. I worry that politics could seriously distort the science. Suppose that carbon taxes are widely enacted, but that the rate of global warming increase starts to decline by 2015. The political system might pressure scientists to provide justifications for the taxes. Imagine the following scenario. Carbon emissions cause some warming, maybe 0.05C/decade. But the current warming rate of 0.20C/decade is mainly due to some natural cause, which in 15 years has run its course and reverses. So by 2025 global temperatures start dropping. In the meantime, on the basis of models from a small group of climate scientists but with no observational evidence (because the small warming due to carbon emissions is masked by the larger natural warming), the world has dutifully paid an enormous cost to curb carbon emissions. Politicians, expressing the anger and apparent futility of all the unnecessary poverty and effort, lead the lynching of the high priests with their opaque models. Ironically, because carbon emissions are raising the temperature baseline around which natural variability occurs, carbon emissions might need curbing after all. Maybe. The current situation is characterized by a lack of observational evidence, so no one knows yet. Some people take strong rhetorical positions on global warming. But the cause of global warming is not just another political issue, subject to endless debate and distortions. The cause of global warming is an issue that falls into the realm of science, because it is falsifiable. No amount of human posturing will affect what the cause is. It just physically is there, and after sufficient research and time we will know what it is. ________________________________________ David Evans, a mathematician, and a computer and electrical engineer, is head of Science Speak
I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train: Do you want to know some facts? I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train By David Evans 5/28/2007 I devoted six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian government to estimate carbon emissions from land use change and forestry. When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty conclusive, but since then new evidence has weakened that case. I am now skeptical. In the late 1990s, this was the evidence suggesting that carbon emissions caused global warming: 1.Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, proved in a laboratory a century ago. 2.Global warming has been occurring for a century and concentrations of atmospheric carbon have been rising for a century. Correlation is not causation, but in a rough sense it looked like a fit. 3.Ice core data, starting with the first cores from Vostok in 1985, allowed us to measure temperature and atmospheric carbon going back hundreds of thousands of years, through several dramatic global warming and cooling events. To the temporal resolution then available (data points more than a thousand years apart), atmospheric carbon and temperature moved in lockstep: they rose and fell together. Talk about a smoking gun! 4.There were no other credible causes of global warming. This evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we are absolutely certain when we apparently need to act now? So the idea that carbon emissions were causing global warming passed from the scientific community into the political realm. Research increased, bureaucracies were formed, international committees met, and eventually the Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997 to curb carbon emissions. The political realm in turn fed money back into the scientific community. By the late 1990s, lots of jobs depended on the idea that carbon emissions caused global warming. Many of them were bureaucratic, but there were a lot of science jobs created too. I was on that gravy train, making a high wage in a science job that would not have existed if we didn't believe carbon emissions caused global warming. And so were lots of people around me; there were international conferences full of such people. We had political support, the ear of government, big budgets. We felt fairly important and useful (I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet! But starting in about 2000, the last three of the four pieces of evidence above fell away. Using the same point numbers as above: 2.Better data shows that from 1940 to 1975 the earth cooled while atmospheric carbon increased. That 35 year non-correlation might eventually be explained by global dimming, only discovered in about 2003. 3.The temporal resolution of the ice core data improved. By 2004 we knew that in past warming events, the temperature increases generally started about 800 years before the rises in atmospheric carbon. Causality does not run in the direction I had assumed in 1999 — it runs the opposite way! It took several hundred years of warming for the oceans to give off more of their carbon. This proves that there is a cause of global warming other than atmospheric carbon. And while it is possible that rising atmospheric carbon in these past warmings then went on to cause more warming ("amplification" of the initial warming), the ice core data neither proves nor disproves this hypothesis. 4.There is now a credible alternative suspect. In October 2006 Henrik Svensmark showed experimentally that cosmic rays cause cloud formation. Clouds have a net cooling effect, but for the last three decades there have been fewer clouds than normal because the sun's magnetic field, which shields us from cosmic rays, has been stronger than usual. So the earth heated up. It's too early to judge what fraction of global warming is caused by cosmic rays. There is now no observational evidence that global warming is caused by carbon emissions. You would think that in over 20 years of intense investigation we would have found something. For example, greenhouse warming due to carbon emissions should warm the upper atmosphere faster than the lower atmosphere — but until 2006 the data showed the opposite, and thus that the greenhouse effect was not occurring! In 2006 better data allowed that the effect might be occurring, except in the tropics. The only current "evidence" for blaming carbon emissions are scientific models (and the fact that there are few contradictory observations). Historically, science has not progressed by calculations and models, but by repeatable observations. Some theories held by science authorities have turned out to be spectacularly wrong: heavier-than-air flight is impossible, the sun orbits the earth, etc. For excellent reasons, we have much more confidence in observations by several independent parties than in models produced by a small set of related parties! Let's return to the interaction between science and politics. By 2000 the political system had responded to the strong scientific case that carbon emissions caused global warming by creating thousands of bureaucratic and science jobs aimed at more research and at curbing carbon emissions. But after 2000 the case against carbon emissions gradually got weaker. Future evidence might strengthen or further weaken it. At what stage of the weakening should the science community alert the political system that carbon emissions might not be the main cause of global warming? None of the new evidence actually says that carbon emissions are definitely not the cause of global warming, there are lots of good science jobs potentially at stake, and if the scientific message wavers then it might be difficult to later recapture the attention of the political system. What has happened is that most research efforts since 1990 have assumed that carbon emissions were the cause, and the alternatives get much less research or political attention. Unfortunately politics and science have become even more entangled. Climate change has become a partisan political issue, so positions become more entrenched. Politicians and the public prefer simple and less-nuanced messages. At the moment the political climate strongly blames carbon emissions, to the point of silencing critics. The integrity of the scientific community will win out in the end, following the evidence wherever it leads. But in the meantime, the effect of the political climate is that most people are overestimating the evidence that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming. I recently bet $6,000 that the rate of global warming would slow in the next two decades. Carbon emissions might be the dominant cause of global warming, but I reckon that probability to be 20% rather than the 90% the IPCC estimates. I worry that politics could seriously distort the science. Suppose that carbon taxes are widely enacted, but that the rate of global warming increase starts to decline by 2015. The political system might pressure scientists to provide justifications for the taxes. Imagine the following scenario. Carbon emissions cause some warming, maybe 0.05C/decade. But the current warming rate of 0.20C/decade is mainly due to some natural cause, which in 15 years has run its course and reverses. So by 2025 global temperatures start dropping. In the meantime, on the basis of models from a small group of climate scientists but with no observational evidence (because the small warming due to carbon emissions is masked by the larger natural warming), the world has dutifully paid an enormous cost to curb carbon emissions. Politicians, expressing the anger and apparent futility of all the unnecessary poverty and effort, lead the lynching of the high priests with their opaque models. Ironically, because carbon emissions are raising the temperature baseline around which natural variability occurs, carbon emissions might need curbing after all. Maybe. The current situation is characterized by a lack of observational evidence, so no one knows yet. Some people take strong rhetorical positions on global warming. But the cause of global warming is not just another political issue, subject to endless debate and distortions. The cause of global warming is an issue that falls into the realm of science, because it is falsifiable. No amount of human posturing will affect what the cause is. It just physically is there, and after sufficient research and time we will know what it is. ________________________________________ David Evans, a mathematician, and a computer and electrical engineer, is head of Science Speak
Bureaucracy and the President? What powers does the president have over the bureaucracy? What power does Congress have over the bureaucracy? Why would political actors even choose to have less control over a bureaucratic actor?
what is a bureaucracy? and can some give an example of a bureaucracy, benefits and drawbacks of bureaucratic management and and any information on bureaucratic management. Thank you, your help is greatly appreciated can anyone reccommend sources for further reading on this topic
Development of Modern Bureaucracy? Explain how the modern bureaucracy developed in the last century. State 3 bureaucratic agencies and explain legislation and constitutional authority that created each of them and their impact on government. are they effective? why and why not?
Please help essay questions..? You have all had negative experiences dealing with bureaucracies. Write about one of your experiences and identify those bureaucratic traits (authority, paperwork or “red tape”, rules, etc.) that you found most annoying.
Liberals are followers and Bush is a leader. Its better to be right than popular? President Bush's Accomplishments Abortion & Traditional Values 1. Banned Partial Birth Abortion — by far the most significant roll-back of abortion on demand since Roe v. Wade. 2. Reversed Clinton's move to strike Reagan's anti-abortion Mexico Policy. 3. By Executive Order (EO), reversed Clinton's policy of not requiring parental consent for abortions under the Medical Privacy Act. 4. By EO, prohibited federal funds for international family planning groups that provide abortions and related services. 5. Upheld the ban on abortions at military hospitals. 6. Made $33 million available for abstinence education programs in 2004. 7. Supports the Defense of Marriage Act — and a Constitutional amendment saying marriage is between one man and one woman. 8. Requires states to conduct criminal background checks on prospective foster and adoptive parents. 9. Requires districts to let students transfer out of dangerous schools. 10. Requires schools to have a zero-tolerance policy for classroom disruption (reintroducing discipline into classrooms). 11. Signed the Teacher Protection Act, which protects teachers from lawsuits related to student discipline. 12. Expanded the role of faith-based and community organizations in after-school programs. Budget, Taxes & Economy 1. Signed two income tax cuts, one of which was the largest dollar-value tax cut in world history. 2. Supports permanent elimination of the death tax. 3. Turned around an inherited economy that was in recession, and deeply shocked as a result of the 9/11 attacks. 4. Is seeking legislation to amend the Constitution to give the president line-item veto authority. 5. In process of permanently eliminating IRS marriage penalty. 6. Increased small business incentives to expand and to hire new people. 7. Initiated discussion on privatizing Social Security and individual investment accounts. 8. Killed Clinton's "ergonomic" rules that OSHA was about to implement; rules would have shut down every home business in America. 9. Passed tough new laws to hold corporate criminals to account as a result of corporate scandals. 10. Reduced taxes on dividends and capital gains. 11. Signed trade promotion authority. 12. Reduced and is working to ultimately eliminate the estate tax for family farms and ranches. 13. Fight Europe's ban on importing biotech crops from the United States. 14. Exempt food from unilateral trade sanctions and embargoes. 15. Provided $20 million to states to help people with disabilities work from home. 16. Created a fund to encourage technologies that help the disabled. 17. Increased the annual contribution limit on Education IRA's from $500 to $2,000 per child. 18. Make permanent the $5,000 adoption tax credit and provide $1 billion over five years to increase the credit to $10,000. 19. Grant a complete tax exemption for prepaid or college tuition savings plans. 20. Reduced H1B visas from a high of 195,000 per year to 66,000 per year. Character & Conduct as President 1. Changed the tone in the White House, restoring HONOR and DIGNITY to the presidency. 2. Has reintroduced the mention of God and faith into public discourse. 3. Handled himself with enormous courage, dignity, grace, determination, and leadership in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 hijackings and anthrax attacks. He almost single-handedly held this country together during those searing days: Just three days after the attacks, in his address at the National Cathedral, the President reassured the nation when he said: "War has been waged against us by stealth and deceit and murder. This nation is peaceful, but fierce when stirred to anger. This conflict was begun on the timing and terms of others. It will end in a way, and at an hour, of our choosing." On Friday, September 14, 2001, President Bush visited Ground Zero. Standing on a crushed and burned fire engine atop the smoldering pile at Ground Zero, he put his arm around a retired firefighter who had volunteered to help, and began speaking to the crowd. Rescue workers shouted that they could not hear him. Someone handed him a small American flag and bullhorn. The President spontaneously shouted: "I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon." The crowd roared with cheers and chants of "USA! USA! USA!" Then he raised that American flag and rallied a nation. Education & Employment Training 1. Signed the No Child Left Behind Act, delivering the most dramatic education reforms in a generation (challenging the soft bigotry of low expectations). The very liberal California Teachers union is currently running radio ads against the accountability provisions of this Act. 2. Announced "Jobs for the 21st Century," a comprehensive plan to better prepare workers for jobs in the new millennium by strengthening post-secondary education and job training, and by improving high school education. 3. Is working to provide vouchers to low-income students in persistently failing schools to help with costs of attending private schools. (Blocked in the Senate.) 4. Requires annual reading and math tests in grades three through eight. 5. Requires states to participate in the National Assessment of Education Progress, or an equivalent program, to establish a national benchmark for academic performance. 6. Requires school-by-school accountability report cards. 7. Established a $2.4 billion fund to help states implement teacher accountability systems. 8. Increased funding for the Troops-to-Teachers program, which recruits former military personnel to become teachers. Environment & Energy 1. Killed the Kyoto Global Warming Treaty. 2. Submitted a comprehensive Energy Plan (awaits Congressional action). The plan works to develop cleaner technology, produce more natural gas here at home, make America less dependent on foreign sources of energy, improve national grid, etc. 3. Established a $10 million grant program to promote private conservation initiatives. 4. Significantly eased field-testing controls of genetically engineered crops. 5. Changed parts of the Forestry Management Act to allow necessary cleanup of the national forests in order to reduce fire danger. 6. Part of national forests cleanup: Restricted judicial challenges (based on the Endangered Species Act and other challenges), and removed the need for an Environmental Impact Statement before removing fuels/logging to reduce fire danger. 7. Killed Clinton's CO2 rules that were choking off all of the electricity surplus to California. 8. Provided matching grants for state programs that help private landowners protect rare species. Defense & Foreign Policy 1. Successfully executed two wars in the aftermath of 9/11/01: Afghanistan and Iraq. 50 million people who had lived under tyrannical regimes now live in freedom. 2. Saddam Hussein is now in prison. His two murderous sons are dead. All but a handful of the regime's senior members were killed or captured. 3. Leader by leader and member by member, al Maida is being hunted down in dozens of countries around the world. Of the senior al Qaeda leaders, operational managers, and key facilitators the U.S. Government has been tracking, nearly two-thirds have been taken into custody or killed. The detentions or deaths of senior al Qaeda leaders, including Khalid Shaykh Muhammad, the mastermind of 9/11, and Muhammad Atef, Osama bin Laden's second-in-command until his death in late 2001, have been important in the War on Terror. 4. Disarmed Libya of its chemical, nuclear and biological WMD's without bribes or bloodshed. 5. Continues to execute the War On Terror, getting worldwide cooperation to track funds/terrorists. Has cut off much of the terrorists' funding, and captured or killed many key leaders of the al Qaeda network. 6. Initiated a comprehensive review of our military, which was completed just prior to 9/11/01, and which accurately reported that ASYMMETRICAL WARFARE capabilities were critical in the 21st Century. 7. Killed the old US/Soviet Union ABM Treaty that was preventing the U.S. from deploying our ABM defenses. 8. Has been one of the strongest, if not THE strongest friend Israel has ever hand in the U.S. presidency. 9. Part of the coalition for an Israeli/Palestinian "Roadmap to Peace," along with Great Britain, Russia and the EU. 10. Pushed through THREE raises for our military. Increased military pay by more than $1 billion a year. 11. Signed the LARGEST nuclear arms reduction in world history with Russia. 12. Started withdrawing our troops from Bosnia, and has announced withdrawal of our troops from Germany and the Korean DMZ. 13. Prohibited putting U.S. troops under U.N. command. 14. Paid back UN dues only in return for reforms and reduction of U.S. share of the costs. 15. Earmarked at least 20 percent of the Defense procurement budget for next-generation weaponry. 16. Increased defense research and development spending by at least $20 billion from fiscal 2002 to 2006. 17. Ordered a comprehensive review of military weapons and strategy. 18. Ordered a review of overseas deployments. 19. Ordered renovation of military housing. The military has already upgraded about 10 percent of its inventory and expects to modernize 76,000 additional homes this year. 20. Is working to tighten restrictions on military-technology exports. 21. Brought back our EP-3 intel plane and crew from China without any bribes or bloodshed. Globalization & Internationalism 1. Challenged the United Nations to live up to their responsibilities and not become another League of Nations (in other words, showed the UN to be completely irrelevant). 2. Killed U.S. involvement in the International Criminal Court. 3. Told the United Nations we weren't interested in their plans for gun control (i.e., the International Ban on Small Arms Trafficking Treaty).* 4. The only President since the founding of the UN to essentially tell that organization it is irrelevant. He said: "The conduct of the Iraqi regime is a threat to the authority of the United Nations, and a threat to peace. Iraq has answered a decade of UN demands with a decade of defiance. All the world now faces a test, and the United Nations a difficult and defining moment. Are Security Council resolutions to be honored and enforced, or cast aside without consequence? Will the United Nations serve the purpose of its founding, or will it be irrelevant?" We all know the outcome and the answer. 5. Told the Congress and the world, "America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country." Government Reform 1. Improved government efficiency by putting hundreds of thousands of jobs put up for bid. This weakens public-sector unions and cuts undeserved pay raises. 2. Initiated review of all federal agencies with the goal of eliminating federal jobs (completed September 2003) in an effort to reduce the size of the federal government while increasing private sector jobs. 3. Led the most extensive reorganization the Federal bureaucracy in over 50 years: After 9/11, condensed 20+ overlapping agencies and their intelligence sectors into one agency, the Department of Homeland Security.* 4. Ordered each agency to draft a five-year plan to restructure itself, with fewer managers. 5. Converted federal service contracts to performance-based contracts wherever possible so that the contractor has measurable performance goals. Health 1. Strengthen the National Health Service Corps to put more physicians in the neediest areas, and make its scholarship funds tax-free. 2. Double the research budget of the National Institutes of Health. 3. Signed Medicare Reform, which includes: A 10-year privatization option. Prescription drug benefits: Prior to this reform, Medicare paid for extended hospital stays for ulcer surgery, for example, at a cost of about $28,000 per patient. Yet Medicare would not pay for the drugs that eliminate the cause of most ulcers, drugs that cost about $500 a year. Now, drug coverage under Medicare will allow seniors to replace more expensive surgeries and hospitalizations with less expensive prescription medicine. More health care choices: As President Bush stated, "…when seniors have the ability to make choices, health care plans within Medicare will have to compete for their business by offering higher quality service [at lower cost]. For the seniors of America, more choices and more control will mean better health care. These are the kinds of health care options we give to the members of Congress and federal employees. What's good for members of Congress is also good for seniors. New Health Savings Accounts: Effective January 1, 2004, Americans can set aside up to $4,500 every year, tax free, to save for medical expenses. Depending on your tax bracket, that means you'll save between 10 to 35 percent on any costs covered by money in your account. Every year, the money not spent would stay in the account and gain interest tax-free, just like an IRA. These accounts will be good for small business owners, and employees. More businesses can focus on covering workers for major medical problems, such as hospitalization for an injury or illness. At the same time, employees and their families will use these accounts to cover doctors visits, or lab tests, or other smaller costs. Some employers will contribute to employee health accounts. This will help more American families get the health care they need at the price they can afford. Homeland Security, Border Enforcement & Immigration 1. *See Government Reform above. Under President Bush's leadership, America has made an unprecedented commitment to homeland security. 2. Has CONSTRUCTION in process on the first 10 ABM silos in Alaska so that America will have a defense against North Korean nukes. Has ordered national and theater ballistic missile defenses to be deployed by 2004. 3. Announced a 9.7% increase in government-wide homeland security funding in his FY 2005 budget, nearly tripling the FY 2001 levels (excluding the Department of Defense and Project BioShield). 4. Before DHS was created, there were inspectors from three different agencies of the Federal Government and Border Patrol officers protecting our borders. Through DHS, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) now consolidates all border activities into a single agency to create "one face at the border." This not only better secures the borders of the United States, but it also eliminates many of the inefficiencies that occurred under the old system. With over 18,000 CBP inspectors and 11,000 Border Patrol agents, CBP has 29,000 uniformed officers on our borders. 5. The Border Patrol is continuing installation of monitoring devices along the borders to detect illegal activity. 6. Launched Operation Tarmac to investigate businesses and workers in the secure areas of domestic airports and ensure immigration law compliance. Since 9/11, DHS has audited 3,640 businesses, examined 259,037 employee records, arrested 1,030 unauthorized workers, and participated in the criminal indictment of 774 individuals. 7. Since September 11, 2001, the Coast Guard has conducted more than 124,000 port security patrols, 13,000 air patrols, boarded more than 92,000 vessels, interdicted over 14,000 individuals attempting to enter the United States illegally, and created and maintained more than 90 Maritime Security Zones. 8. Announced the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), an internet-based system that is improving America's ability to track and monitor foreign students and exchange visitors. Over 870,000 students are registered in SEVIS. Of 285 completed field investigations, 71 aliens were arrested. 9. This week, the US-VISIT program began to digitally collect biometric identifiers to record the entry and exit of aliens who travel into the U.S on a visa. Together with the standard information, this new program will confirm compliance with visa and immigration policies. 10. Eliminated INS bureaucratic redundancies and lack of accountability. 11. Split the Immigration and Naturalization Service into two agencies: one to protect the border and interior, the other to deal with naturalization. 12. Signed the workplace verification bill to prevent hiring of illegal aliens. 13. Established a six-month deadline for processing immigration applications. 14. Information regarding nearly 100% of all containerized cargo is carefully screened by DHS before it arrives in the United States. Higher risk shipments are physically inspected for terrorist weapons and contraband prior to being released from the port of entry. Advanced technologies are being deployed to identify warning signs of chemical, biological, or radiological attacks. Since September 11, 2001, hundreds of thousands of first responders across America have been trained to recognize and respond to the effects of a WMD attack. Judiciary & Tort Reform 1. Is urging federal liability reform to eliminate frivolous lawsuits. 2. Killed the liberal ABA's unconstitutional role in vetting federal judges. The Senate is supposed to advise and consent, not the ABA. 3. Is nominating strong, conservative judges to the judiciary. 4. Supports class action reform bill which limits lawyer fees so that more settlement money goes to victims. Politics 1. His leadership resulted in Republican gains in the House and Senate, solidifying Republican control of both houses of Congress and the presidency. 2. Signed an EO enforcing the Supreme Court's Beck decision regarding union dues being used for political campaigns against individual's wishes. Second Amendment 1. Ordered Attorney General Ashcroft to formally notify the Supreme Court that the OFFICIAL U.S. government position on the 2nd Amendment is that it supports INDIVIDUAL rights to own firearms, and is NOT a Leftist-imagined "collective" right. 2. Signed TWO bills into law that arm our pilots with handguns in the cockpit. 3. Currently pushing for full immunity from lawsuits for our national gun manufacturers. 4. *See Globalization & Internationalism. Traditional Values, Compassion & Volunteerism 1. Endorses and promotes "The Responsibility Era." President Bush often speaks of the necessity of personal responsibility and civic volunteerism. He said, "In a compassionate society, people respect one another and take responsibility for the decisions they make in life. My hope is to change the culture from one that has said, if it feels good, do it; if you've got a problem, blame somebody else — to one in which every single American understands that he or she is responsible for the decisions that you make; you're responsible for loving your children with all your heart and all your soul; you're responsible for being involved with the quality of the education of your children; you're responsible for making sure the community in which you live is safe; you're responsible for loving your neighbor, just like you would like to be loved yourself." 2. Started the USA Freedom Corps, the most comprehensive clearinghouse of volunteer opportunities ever offered. For the first time in history, Americans can enter geographic information about where they want to get involved, such as state or zip code, as well as areas of interest ranging from education to the environment, and they can access volunteer opportunities offered by more than 50,000 organizations across the country and around the world. 3. Established the The White House Office and the Centers for the Faith-Based and Community Initiative — located in seven Federal agencies. The faith-based initiative supports the essential work of these important organizations. The goal is to make sure that grassroots leaders can compete on an equal footing for federal dollars, receive greater private support, and face fewer bureaucratic barriers. Work focuses on at-risk youth, ex-offenders, the homeless and hungry, substance abusers, those with HIV/AIDS, and welfare-to-work families. 4. The White House released a guidebook fully describing the Administration's belief that faith-based groups have a Constitutionally-protected right to maintain their religious identity through hiring — even when Federal funds are involved. 5. Issued an EO implementing the Supreme Court's Olmstead ruling, which requires moving disabled people from institutions to community-based facilities when possible. 6. Increased funding for low-interest loan programs to help people with disabilities purchase devices to assist them. 7. Revised the Department of Housing and Urban Development's Section 8 rent subsidies to disabled people, permitting them to use up to a year's worth of vouchers to finance down payments on homes. HUD has started pilot programs in 11 states. 8. Committed US funds to purchase medicine for millions of men, women and children now suffering with AIDS in Africa. 9. Heeding the words of our own Declaration of Independence, the president laid out the non-negotiable demands of human dignity for all people everywhere. On January 29, 2002, he said, "No nation owns these aspirations, and no nation is exempt from them. We have no intention of imposing our culture. But America will always stand firm for the non-negotiable demands of human dignity." As stated by the President, they are a virtual manifesto of conservative principles: Equal Justice Freedom of Speech Limited Government Power Private Property Rights Religious Tolerance Respect for Women Rule of Law
why are people opposed to healthcare reform? Ill put it this way we have a public school system available to all citizens, did that destroy america. why are so many people so opposed to the idea of everyone having government funded health care i personally support a health care system following Canada's lead? A Canadian health care system would eliminate much the bureaucratic waste that plagues the American system. According to the General Accounting Office of the US congress, the savings from consolidating the bureaucracy of the U.S. health care system into one such as the Canadian system would be upwards of $100 billion annually. Without increasing the total amount of money spent in the US on health care, this money could be redirected to pay for the costs of including everyone, rich or poor, in a nationalized insurance program that could even cover co-payments and deductables. The Canadian system simply offers more for your money: more and better care than US HMOs, at a lower cost. Honestly why dont people get that a government provided healthcare is a good idea?
Homework help: Bureaucracy and Congress? address the following in 200 to 300 words: o What does the term red tape mean, and how does it relate to the federal bureaucracy? o To what extent is Congress to blame for bureaucratic red tape? o What are some of the benefits of the federal bureaucracy? o What are some of the drawbacks to the current bureaucratic system?
Why do libs avoid President Bush's Accomplishments? President Bush's Accomplishments Spotted at Rightnation.us and GOPUSA.com reprinted here for your pleasure. I encourage people who support Bush to learn how effective our President has been, and liberals ought to browse this too. Just remember, the liberal media can't cover up the truth of his accomplishments. The Bush Administration 2001-2004 Abortion & Traditional Values 1. Banned Partial Birth Abortion — by far the most significant roll-back of abortion on demand since Roe v. Wade. 2. Reversed Clinton's move to strike Reagan's anti-abortion Mexico Policy. 3. By Executive Order (EO), reversed Clinton's policy of not requiring parental consent for abortions under the Medical Privacy Act. 4. By EO, prohibited federal funds for international family planning groups that provide abortions and related services. 5. Upheld the ban on abortions at military hospitals. 6. Made $33 million available for abstinence education programs in 2004. 7. Supports the Defense of Marriage Act — and a Constitutional amendment saying marriage is between one man and one woman. 8. Requires states to conduct criminal background checks on prospective foster and adoptive parents. 9. Requires districts to let students transfer out of dangerous schools. 10. Requires schools to have a zero-tolerance policy for classroom disruption (reintroducing discipline into classrooms). 11. Signed the Teacher Protection Act, which protects teachers from lawsuits related to student discipline. 12. Expanded the role of faith-based and community organizations in after-school programs. Budget, Taxes & Economy 1. Signed two income tax cuts, one of which was the largest dollar-value tax cut in world history. 2. Supports permanent elimination of the death tax. 3. Turned around an inherited economy that was in recession, and deeply shocked as a result of the 9/11 attacks. 4. Is seeking legislation to amend the Constitution to give the president line-item veto authority. 5. In process of permanently eliminating IRS marriage penalty. 6. Increased small business incentives to expand and to hire new people. 7. Initiated discussion on privatizing Social Security and individual investment accounts. 8. Killed Clinton's "ergonomic" rules that OSHA was about to implement; rules would have shut down every home business in America. 9. Passed tough new laws to hold corporate criminals to account as a result of corporate scandals. 10. Reduced taxes on dividends and capital gains. 11. Signed trade promotion authority. 12. Reduced and is working to ultimately eliminate the estate tax for family farms and ranches. 13. Fight Europe's ban on importing biotech crops from the United States. 14. Exempt food from unilateral trade sanctions and embargoes. 15. Provided $20 million to states to help people with disabilities work from home. 16. Created a fund to encourage technologies that help the disabled. 17. Increased the annual contribution limit on Education IRA's from $500 to $2,000 per child. 18. Make permanent the $5,000 adoption tax credit and provide $1 billion over five years to increase the credit to $10,000. 19. Grant a complete tax exemption for prepaid or college tuition savings plans. 20. Reduced H1B visas from a high of 195,000 per year to 66,000 per year. Character & Conduct as President 1. Changed the tone in the White House, restoring HONOR and DIGNITY to the presidency. 2. Has reintroduced the mention of God and faith into public discourse. 3. Handled himself with enormous courage, dignity, grace, determination, and leadership in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 hijackings and anthrax attacks. He almost single-handedly held this country together during those searing days: Just three days after the attacks, in his address at the National Cathedral, the President reassured the nation when he said: "War has been waged against us by stealth and deceit and murder. This nation is peaceful, but fierce when stirred to anger. This conflict was begun on the timing and terms of others. It will end in a way, and at an hour, of our choosing." On Friday, September 14, 2001, President Bush visited Ground Zero. Standing on a crushed and burned fire engine atop the smoldering pile at Ground Zero, he put his arm around a retired firefighter who had volunteered to help, and began speaking to the crowd. Rescue workers shouted that they could not hear him. Someone handed him a small American flag and bullhorn. The President spontaneously shouted: "I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon." The crowd roared with cheers and chants of "USA! USA! USA!" Then he raised that American flag and rallied a nation. Education & Employment Training 1. Signed the No Child Left Behind Act, delivering the most dramatic education reforms in a generation (challenging the soft bigotry of low expectations). The very liberal California Teachers union is currently running radio ads against the accountability provisions of this Act. 2. Announced "Jobs for the 21st Century," a comprehensive plan to better prepare workers for jobs in the new millennium by strengthening post-secondary education and job training, and by improving high school education. 3. Is working to provide vouchers to low-income students in persistently failing schools to help with costs of attending private schools. (Blocked in the Senate.) 4. Requires annual reading and math tests in grades three through eight. 5. Requires states to participate in the National Assessment of Education Progress, or an equivalent program, to establish a national benchmark for academic performance. 6. Requires school-by-school accountability report cards. 7. Established a $2.4 billion fund to help states implement teacher accountability systems. 8. Increased funding for the Troops-to-Teachers program, which recruits former military personnel to become teachers. Environment & Energy 1. Killed the Kyoto Global Warming Treaty. 2. Submitted a comprehensive Energy Plan (awaits Congressional action). The plan works to develop cleaner technology, produce more natural gas here at home, make America less dependent on foreign sources of energy, improve national grid, etc. 3. Established a $10 million grant program to promote private conservation initiatives. 4. Significantly eased field-testing controls of genetically engineered crops. 5. Changed parts of the Forestry Management Act to allow necessary cleanup of the national forests in order to reduce fire danger. 6. Part of national forests cleanup: Restricted judicial challenges (based on the Endangered Species Act and other challenges), and removed the need for an Environmental Impact Statement before removing fuels/logging to reduce fire danger. 7. Killed Clinton's CO2 rules that were choking off all of the electricity surplus to California. 8. Provided matching grants for state programs that help private landowners protect rare species. Defense & Foreign Policy 1. Successfully executed two wars in the aftermath of 9/11/01: Afghanistan and Iraq. 50 million people who had lived under tyrannical regimes now live in freedom. 2. Saddam Hussein is now in prison. His two murderous sons are dead. All but a handful of the regime's senior members were killed or captured. 3. Leader by leader and member by member, al Maida is being hunted down in dozens of countries around the world. Of the senior al Qaeda leaders, operational managers, and key facilitators the U.S. Government has been tracking, nearly two-thirds have been taken into custody or killed. The detentions or deaths of senior al Qaeda leaders, including Khalid Shaykh Muhammad, the mastermind of 9/11, and Muhammad Atef, Osama bin Laden's second-in-command until his death in late 2001, have been important in the War on Terror. 4. Disarmed Libya of its chemical, nuclear and biological WMD's without bribes or bloodshed. 5. Continues to execute the War On Terror, getting worldwide cooperation to track funds/terrorists. Has cut off much of the terrorists' funding, and captured or killed many key leaders of the al Qaeda network. 6. Initiated a comprehensive review of our military, which was completed just prior to 9/11/01, and which accurately reported that ASYMMETRICAL WARFARE capabilities were critical in the 21st Century. 7. Killed the old US/Soviet Union ABM Treaty that was preventing the U.S. from deploying our ABM defenses. 8. Has been one of the strongest, if not THE strongest friend Israel has ever hand in the U.S. presidency. 9. Part of the coalition for an Israeli/Palestinian "Roadmap to Peace," along with Great Britain, Russia and the EU. 10. Pushed through THREE raises for our military. Increased military pay by more than $1 billion a year. 11. Signed the LARGEST nuclear arms reduction in world history with Russia. 12. Started withdrawing our troops from Bosnia, and has announced withdrawal of our troops from Germany and the Korean DMZ. 13. Prohibited putting U.S. troops under U.N. command. 14. Paid back UN dues only in return for reforms and reduction of U.S. share of the costs. 15. Earmarked at least 20 percent of the Defense procurement budget for next-generation weaponry. 16. Increased defense research and development spending by at least $20 billion from fiscal 2002 to 2006. 17. Ordered a comprehensive review of military weapons and strategy. 18. Ordered a review of overseas deployments. 19. Ordered renovation of military housing. The military has already upgraded about 10 percent of its inventory and expects to modernize 76,000 additional homes this year. 20. Is working to tighten restrictions on military-technology exports. 21. Brought back our EP-3 intel plane and crew from China without any bribes or bloodshed. Globalization & Internationalism 1. Challenged the United Nations to live up to their responsibilities and not become another League of Nations (in other words, showed the UN to be completely irrelevant). 2. Killed U.S. involvement in the International Criminal Court. 3. Told the United Nations we weren't interested in their plans for gun control (i.e., the International Ban on Small Arms Trafficking Treaty).* 4. The only President since the founding of the UN to essentially tell that organization it is irrelevant. He said: "The conduct of the Iraqi regime is a threat to the authority of the United Nations, and a threat to peace. Iraq has answered a decade of UN demands with a decade of defiance. All the world now faces a test, and the United Nations a difficult and defining moment. Are Security Council resolutions to be honored and enforced, or cast aside without consequence? Will the United Nations serve the purpose of its founding, or will it be irrelevant?" We all know the outcome and the answer. 5. Told the Congress and the world, "America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country." Government Reform 1. Improved government efficiency by putting hundreds of thousands of jobs put up for bid. This weakens public-sector unions and cuts undeserved pay raises. 2. Initiated review of all federal agencies with the goal of eliminating federal jobs (completed September 2003) in an effort to reduce the size of the federal government while increasing private sector jobs. 3. Led the most extensive reorganization the Federal bureaucracy in over 50 years: After 9/11, condensed 20+ overlapping agencies and their intelligence sectors into one agency, the Department of Homeland Security.* 4. Ordered each agency to draft a five-year plan to restructure itself, with fewer managers. 5. Converted federal service contracts to performance-based contracts wherever possible so that the contractor has measurable performance goals. Health 1. Strengthen the National Health Service Corps to put more physicians in the neediest areas, and make its scholarship funds tax-free. 2. Double the research budget of the National Institutes of Health. 3. Signed Medicare Reform, which includes: A 10-year privatization option. Prescription drug benefits: Prior to this reform, Medicare paid for extended hospital stays for ulcer surgery, for example, at a cost of about $28,000 per patient. Yet Medicare would not pay for the drugs that eliminate the cause of most ulcers, drugs that cost about $500 a year. Now, drug coverage under Medicare will allow seniors to replace more expensive surgeries and hospitalizations with less expensive prescription medicine. More health care choices: As President Bush stated, "…when seniors have the ability to make choices, health care plans within Medicare will have to compete for their business by offering higher quality service [at lower cost]. For the seniors of America, more choices and more control will mean better health care. These are the kinds of health care options we give to the members of Congress and federal employees. What's good for members of Congress is also good for seniors. New Health Savings Accounts: Effective January 1, 2004, Americans can set aside up to $4,500 every year, tax free, to save for medical expenses. Depending on your tax bracket, that means you'll save between 10 to 35 percent on any costs covered by money in your account. Every year, the money not spent would stay in the account and gain interest tax-free, just like an IRA. These accounts will be good for small business owners, and employees. More businesses can focus on covering workers for major medical problems, such as hospitalization for an injury or illness. At the same time, employees and their families will use these accounts to cover doctors visits, or lab tests, or other smaller costs. Some employers will contribute to employee health accounts. This will help more American families get the health care they need at the price they can afford. Homeland Security, Border Enforcement & Immigration 1. *See Government Reform above. Under President Bush's leadership, America has made an unprecedented commitment to homeland security. 2. Has CONSTRUCTION in process on the first 10 ABM silos in Alaska so that America will have a defense against North Korean nukes. Has ordered national and theater ballistic missile defenses to be deployed by 2004. 3. Announced a 9.7% increase in government-wide homeland security funding in his FY 2005 budget, nearly tripling the FY 2001 levels (excluding the Department of Defense and Project BioShield). 4. Before DHS was created, there were inspectors from three different agencies of the Federal Government and Border Patrol officers protecting our borders. Through DHS, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) now consolidates all border activities into a single agency to create "one face at the border." This not only better secures the borders of the United States, but it also eliminates many of the inefficiencies that occurred under the old system. With over 18,000 CBP inspectors and 11,000 Border Patrol agents, CBP has 29,000 uniformed officers on our borders. 5. The Border Patrol is continuing installation of monitoring devices along the borders to detect illegal activity. 6. Launched Operation Tarmac to investigate businesses and workers in the secure areas of domestic airports and ensure immigration law compliance. Since 9/11, DHS has audited 3,640 businesses, examined 259,037 employee records, arrested 1,030 unauthorized workers, and participated in the criminal indictment of 774 individuals. 7. Since September 11, 2001, the Coast Guard has conducted more than 124,000 port security patrols, 13,000 air patrols, boarded more than 92,000 vessels, interdicted over 14,000 individuals attempting to enter the United States illegally, and created and maintained more than 90 Maritime Security Zones. 8. Announced the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), an internet-based system that is improving America's ability to track and monitor foreign students and exchange visitors. Over 870,000 students are registered in SEVIS. Of 285 completed field investigations, 71 aliens were arrested. 9. This week, the US-VISIT program began to digitally collect biometric identifiers to record the entry and exit of aliens who travel into the U.S on a visa. Together with the standard information, this new program will confirm compliance with visa and immigration policies. 10. Eliminated INS bureaucratic redundancies and lack of accountability. 11. Split the Immigration and Naturalization Service into two agencies: one to protect the border and interior, the other to deal with naturalization. 12. Signed the workplace verification bill to prevent hiring of illegal aliens. 13. Established a six-month deadline for processing immigration applications. 14. Information regarding nearly 100% of all containerized cargo is carefully screened by DHS before it arrives in the United States. Higher risk shipments are physically inspected for terrorist weapons and contraband prior to being released from the port of entry. Advanced technologies are being deployed to identify warning signs of chemical, biological, or radiological attacks. Since September 11, 2001, hundreds of thousands of first responders across America have been trained to recognize and respond to the effects of a WMD attack. Judiciary & Tort Reform 1. Is urging federal liability reform to eliminate frivolous lawsuits. 2. Killed the liberal ABA's unconstitutional role in vetting federal judges. The Senate is supposed to advise and consent, not the ABA. 3. Is nominating strong, conservative judges to the judiciary. 4. Supports class action reform bill which limits lawyer fees so that more settlement money goes to victims. Politics 1. His leadership resulted in Republican gains in the House and Senate, solidifying Republican control of both houses of Congress and the presidency. 2. Signed an EO enforcing the Supreme Court's Beck decision regarding union dues being used for political campaigns against individual's wishes. Second Amendment 1. Ordered Attorney General Ashcroft to formally notify the Supreme Court that the OFFICIAL U.S. government position on the 2nd Amendment is that it supports INDIVIDUAL rights to own firearms, and is NOT a Leftist-imagined "collective" right. 2. Signed TWO bills into law that arm our pilots with handguns in the cockpit. 3. Currently pushing for full immunity from lawsuits for our national gun manufacturers. 4. *See Globalization & Internationalism. Traditional Values, Compassion & Volunteerism 1. Endorses and promotes "The Responsibility Era." President Bush often speaks of the necessity of personal responsibility and civic volunteerism. He said, "In a compassionate society, people respect one another and take responsibility for the decisions they make in life. My hope is to change the culture from one that has said, if it feels good, do it; if you've got a problem, blame somebody else — to one in which every single American understands that he or she is responsible for the decisions that you make; you're responsible for loving your children with all your heart and all your soul; you're responsible for being involved with the quality of the education of your children; you're responsible for making sure the community in which you live is safe; you're responsible for loving your neighbor, just like you would like to be loved yourself." 2. Started the USA Freedom Corps, the most comprehensive clearinghouse of volunteer opportunities ever offered. For the first time in history, Americans can enter geographic information about where they want to get involved, such as state or zip code, as well as areas of interest ranging from education to the environment, and they can access volunteer opportunities offered by more than 50,000 organizations across the country and around the world. 3. Established the The White House Office and the Centers for the Faith-Based and Community Initiative — located in seven Federal agencies. The faith-based initiative supports the essential work of these important organizations. The goal is to make sure that grassroots leaders can compete on an equal footing for federal dollars, receive greater private support, and face fewer bureaucratic barriers. Work focuses on at-risk youth, ex-offenders, the homeless and hungry, substance abusers, those with HIV/AIDS, and welfare-to-work families. 4. The White House released a guidebook fully describing the Administration's belief that faith-based groups have a Constitutionally-protected right to maintain their religious identity through hiring — even when Federal funds are involved. 5. Issued an EO implementing the Supreme Court's Olmstead ruling, which requires moving disabled people from institutions to community-based facilities when possible. 6. Increased funding for low-interest loan programs to help people with disabilities purchase devices to assist them. 7. Revised the Department of Housing and Urban Development's Section 8 rent subsidies to disabled people, permitting them to use up to a year's worth of vouchers to finance down payments on homes. HUD has started pilot programs in 11 states. 8. Committed US funds to purchase medicine for millions of men, women and children now suffering with AIDS in Africa. 9. Heeding the words of our own Declaration of Independence, the president laid out the non-negotiable demands of human dignity for all people everywhere. On January 29, 2002, he said, "No nation owns these aspirations, and no nation is exempt from them. We have no intention of imposing our culture. But America will always stand firm for the non-negotiable demands of human dignity." As stated by the President, they are a virtual manifesto of conservative principles: Equal Justice Freedom of Speech Limited Government Power Private Property Rights Religious Tolerance Respect for Women Rule of Law
Topic= Bureaucracy and responsibility? Topic is Bureaucracy and responsibility 1. Explain what execution is and why agencies have it. 2. Explain the use of discretion. 3. Describe the following bureaucratic agencies (EPA, FCC, Federal Reserve Board) and specific examples of policy they have discretion over and why.
Bureaucracy? What are the advantages of bureaucrats over the Presidents as they interact in the policy-making process? What are the titles of leaders in different bureaucratic agencies? What happens when people leave certain positions in the bureaucracy?
I was in the global warming gravy Train : observational evidence or models ? co2 the real cause? By David Evans 5/28/2007 I devoted six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian government to estimate carbon emissions from land use change and forestry. When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty conclusive, but since then new evidence has weakened that case. I am now skeptical. In the late 1990s, this was the evidence suggesting that carbon emissions caused global warming: 1.Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, proved in a laboratory a century ago. 2.Global warming has been occurring for a century and concentrations of atmospheric carbon have been rising for a century. Correlation is not causation, but in a rough sense it looked like a fit. 3.Ice core data, starting with the first cores from Vostok in 1985, allowed us to measure temperature and atmospheric carbon going back hundreds of thousands of years, through several dramatic global warming and cooling events. To the temporal resolution then available (data points more than a thousand years apart), atmospheric carbon and temperature moved in lockstep: they rose and fell together. Talk about a smoking gun! 4.There were no other credible causes of global warming. This evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we are absolutely certain when we apparently need to act now? So the idea that carbon emissions were causing global warming passed from the scientific community into the political realm. Research increased, bureaucracies were formed, international committees met, and eventually the Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997 to curb carbon emissions. The political realm in turn fed money back into the scientific community. By the late 1990s, lots of jobs depended on the idea that carbon emissions caused global warming. Many of them were bureaucratic, but there were a lot of science jobs created too. I was on that gravy train, making a high wage in a science job that would not have existed if we didn't believe carbon emissions caused global warming. And so were lots of people around me; there were international conferences full of such people. We had political support, the ear of government, big budgets. We felt fairly important and useful (I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet! But starting in about 2000, the last three of the four pieces of evidence above fell away. Using the same point numbers as above: 2.Better data shows that from 1940 to 1975 the earth cooled while atmospheric carbon increased. That 35 year non-correlation might eventually be explained by global dimming, only discovered in about 2003. 3.The temporal resolution of the ice core data improved. By 2004 we knew that in past warming events, the temperature increases generally started about 800 years before the rises in atmospheric carbon. Causality does not run in the direction I had assumed in 1999 — it runs the opposite way! It took several hundred years of warming for the oceans to give off more of their carbon. This proves that there is a cause of global warming other than atmospheric carbon. And while it is possible that rising atmospheric carbon in these past warmings then went on to cause more warming ("amplification" of the initial warming), the ice core data neither proves nor disproves this hypothesis. 4.There is now a credible alternative suspect. In October 2006 Henrik Svensmark showed experimentally that cosmic rays cause cloud formation. Clouds have a net cooling effect, but for the last three decades there have been fewer clouds than normal because the sun's magnetic field, which shields us from cosmic rays, has been stronger than usual. So the earth heated up. It's too early to judge what fraction of global warming is caused by cosmic rays. There is now no observational evidence that global warming is caused by carbon emissions. You would think that in over 20 years of intense investigation we would have found something. For example, greenhouse warming due to carbon emissions should warm the upper atmosphere faster than the lower atmosphere — but until 2006 the data showed the opposite, and thus that the greenhouse effect was not occurring! In 2006 better data allowed that the effect might be occurring, except in the tropics. The only current "evidence" for blaming carbon emissions are scientific models (and the fact that there are few contradictory observations). Historically, science has not progressed by calculations and models, but by repeatable observations. Some theories held by science authorities have turned out to be spectacularly wrong: heavier-than-air flight is impossible, the sun orbits the earth, etc. For excellent reasons, we have much more confidence in observations by several independent parties than in models produced by a small set of related parties! Let's return to the interaction between science and politics. By 2000 the political system had responded to the strong scientific case that carbon emissions caused global warming by creating thousands of bureaucratic and science jobs aimed at more research and at curbing carbon emissions. But after 2000 the case against carbon emissions gradually got weaker. Future evidence might strengthen or further weaken it. At what stage of the weakening should the science community alert the political system that carbon emissions might not be the main cause of global warming? None of the new evidence actually says that carbon emissions are definitely not the cause of global warming, there are lots of good science jobs potentially at stake, and if the scientific message wavers then it might be difficult to later recapture the attention of the political system. What has happened is that most research efforts since 1990 have assumed that carbon emissions were the cause, and the alternatives get much less research or political attention. Unfortunately politics and science have become even more entangled. Climate change has become a partisan political issue, so positions become more entrenched. Politicians and the public prefer simple and less-nuanced messages. At the moment the political climate strongly blames carbon emissions, to the point of silencing critics. The integrity of the scientific community will win out in the end, following the evidence wherever it leads. But in the meantime, the effect of the political climate is that most people are overestimating the evidence that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming. I recently bet $6,000 that the rate of global warming would slow in the next two decades. Carbon emissions might be the dominant cause of global warming, but I reckon that probability to be 20% rather than the 90% the IPCC estimates. I worry that politics could seriously distort the science. Suppose that carbon taxes are widely enacted, but that the rate of global warming increase starts to decline by 2015. The political system might pressure scientists to provide justifications for the taxes. Imagine the following scenario. Carbon emissions cause some warming, maybe 0.05C/decade. But the current warming rate of 0.20C/decade is mainly due to some natural cause, which in 15 years has run its course and reverses. So by 2025 global temperatures start dropping. In the meantime, on the basis of models from a small group of climate scientists but with no observational evidence (because the small warming due to carbon emissions is masked by the larger natural warming), the world has dutifully paid an enormous cost to curb carbon emissions. Politicians, expressing the anger and apparent futility of all the unnecessary poverty and effort, lead the lynching of the high priests with their opaque models. Ironically, because carbon emissions are raising the temperature baseline around which natural variability occurs, carbon emissions might need curbing after all. Maybe. The current situation is characterized by a lack of observational evidence, so no one knows yet. Some people take strong rhetorical positions on global warming. But the cause of global warming is not just another political issue, subject to endless debate and distortions. The cause of global warming is an issue that falls into the realm of science, because it is falsifiable. No amount of human posturing will affect what the cause is. It just physically is there, and after sufficient research and time we will know what it is. ______________________________... David Evans, a mathematician, and a computer and electrical engineer, is head of Science Speak
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